Variability in GCSE results for schools and colleges

Centre Variability
Questions and Answers

1. What do the graphs and tables show?

The graphs show the year-on-year and longer-term variation seen in centres (schools or colleges) in England for a particular GCSE subject.

There are three tabs showing different comparisons:

Current year tab: the graph on the left shows year-on-year variability, that is outcomes in the current year relative to the previous one (ie between summer 2023 and summer 2022); while the graph on the right shows longer-term variability, that is outcomes in the current year relative to three years ago (ie between summer 2023 and summer 2019).

Previous year-on-year tab: outcomes in 2022, 2021, 2020 and 2019 are each shown in comparison to the previous year (eg between summer 2022 and summer 2021).

Previous longer-term tab: outcomes in 2022, 2021, 2020 and 2019 are each shown in comparison to the year four years prior (eg between summer 2022 and summer 2018).

On all tabs, for each graph:

Each bar represents the number of centres with a particular level of variation, measured in intervals of 2.5 percentage points. For example, the bar immediately to the right of zero on the x-axis represents centres that had an increase of up to 2.5 percentage points (ie centres where up to 2.5% more students received grade 4/C and above or grade 7/A and above, compared to the previous year).
Bars to the right of zero indicate centres with increases in the percentage of students receiving grade 4/C and above or grade 7/A and above. Bars to the left indicate centres with decreases in the percentage of students receiving grade 4/C and above or 7/A and above. The bars further away from zero indicate centres with larger changes in outcomes between years.
The higher the peaks in the middle and the narrower the distributions, the greater the stability from one year to the next (see Q12. How should we interpret the standard deviation [SD]).

2. How were grades awarded in summer 2023?

The aim of awarding in summer 2023 was to return to pre-pandemic grading. As in any year, grade boundaries were set based on a combination of quantitative and qualitative evidence. The return to pre-pandemic grading means that national results will be lower than summer 2022 and it will be most meaningful to compare this year’s results with 2019, the last year that summer exams were taken before the pandemic. Further information is available on the Ofqual website, in the Ofqual student guide 2023, and in our blog 10 things to know about GCSE, AS and A level grades.

In 2020 and 2021, when GCSE, AS and A level grades were determined by teachers, national outcomes were higher than prior to the pandemic. Outcomes were also higher than pre-pandemic in 2022 when grading was at a midway point between summer 2019 and summer 2021 (see also Q3. How were grades awarded in summer 2022, summer 2021 and summer 2020?).

3. How were grades awarded in summer 2022, 2021 and summer 2020?

Awarding in summer 2022 was at a midway point between summer 2019 and summer 2021. As in any year, grade boundaries were set based on a combination of quantitative and qualitative evidence. Further information is available on the Ofqual website, in the student guide to exams and formal assessments in 2021 to 2022, and in our blog post from 2022.

Ahead of summer 2021, the government determined that many exams and assessments could not be held fairly as a result of the disruption students had faced due to the pandemic. Teachers were asked instead to submit grades to the exam boards, based on their assessment of what students have shown they know and can do, enabling progression to the next stage of education, training, or employment. The student guide to awarding in summer 2021 gives further information.

The summer 2020 exam series was cancelled due to the measures put in place in response to the coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic. Students were awarded either their centre assessment grade or the calculated grade, whichever was the higher. Further information about the alternative arrangements for awarding in summer 2020 is available on the Ofqual website.

In 2020 and 2021, when GCSE, AS and A level grades were determined by teachers, national outcomes were higher than prior to the pandemic.

4. Why are longer-term comparisons included this year?

We are including comparisons between 2023 and 2019 this year, as we did last year, so that results can be compared to those prior to the pandemic. We have therefore included an option to view longer-term (four year) comparisons (eg 2023 compared to 2019).

Further historical longer-term comparisons are also provided for 2022, 2021, 2020 and 2019 to provide additional context to help aid interpretation of the longer-term 2023 to 2019 comparison. Specifically, comparing centres over a longer period is likely to result in more variation, such as a larger standard deviation and a wider distribution.

There may also be a smaller number of centres included in the comparison (see also Q6. Which centres are included in the graphs). These differences in distributions between the one-year and longer-term comparisons are due to changes within centres, such as changing entry patterns, as well as external factors such as qualification reform and other changes due to the pandemic (see also Q12. How should we interpret the SD?).

5. Why are 9 to 4 or 9 to 7 reported instead of A* to C or A* to A?

GCSEs in England have been reformed with the process occurring in phases over several years. The reformed GCSEs are graded with a new scale of 9 to 1, with 9 being the highest grade. In the new GCSEs, grades 7 and 4 have been set to align with A and C in the previous specifications. More information on the GCSE reform timetable can be found on the Ofqual website. Grades change over time from letters to a mixture of letters and numbers as a result of these reforms. All grades are now on the 9 to 1 scale.

6. Which subjects have been included?

We have included those subjects at GCSE which have a large enough entry to support the analysis.

7. Which centres are included in the graphs?

We only include centres that have an entry (in both years) of at least 25 students in the subject in question. We do not include centres with smaller entries because just one or two students’ grades can make the centre appear to have quite a lot of variability.

Also, each graph shows data for centres which have entries above 25 in both years covered in that graph. Centres which had an entry in only one of the two years shown in a graph are not included.

The graphs represent all types of centre (eg comprehensive, academy, free school, independent etc).

8. What age are the students in the centres included in the graph?

It is possible to see centre variability according to all students in the centres, regardless of age; or to see centre variability just for those students in year 11 (ie aged 16 at the end of the academic year), the target age for GCSEs. This can be done by adjusting the “Age group” settings in the panel at the top of the page.

9. What is meant by centres with ‘stable’ entry numbers?

In these graphs, it is possible to view data for ‘all centres’ or ‘centres with stable entry numbers’. This can be done by adjusting the “Entry stability” settings in the panel at the top of the page. Centres with stable entry numbers are those centres which entered very similar numbers of students in the subject in both years shown in a graph. By very similar numbers we mean within +/- 15% of the comparison year.

These centres typically show less variation in results. This is probably because large changes in entry in a subject within a centre likely means other things have changed such as the overall profile of students or the nature of provision for the teaching of the subject

10. What does the mean value on graphs represent?

The mean on each graph is the average difference compared between the two comparison years for all of the centres presented in the graph. For example, a mean of -0.6% indicates that, on average, centres had a 0.6% drop in the number of students attaining a grade 4/C and above or 7/A and above at GCSE.

11. What is the standard deviation (SD) shown on graphs?

The standard deviation (SD on the graphs) is a measure of the spread of the variation - a lower SD means there is less variation overall whereas a higher standard deviation means there is more variation. A small SD means that most centres had low levels of variability.

12. How should we interpret the standard deviation (SD)?

We include multiple graphs which can help to interpret the SD. In general, where specifications and overall cohorts have not changed, we might expect the SDs to be reasonably similar between graphs, although the impacts of the pandemic may affect the SD between years. Some of the subjects at GCSE are newer and have been assessed over fewer years and so we might expect to see increased variability in these subjects as centres become familiar with the new content and assessments.

13. Some graphs dont have many centres in them. Does that matter?

Where graphs have a small number of centres presented (ie less than 50), they need to be interpreted with additional caution. Where the combinations selected (of subject, stability, centre size, etc.) produce graphs with a relatively small number of centres, these graphs say little about the overall picture, and more about the individual centres. For this reason, only graphs with more than 20 centres are displayed.

14. Where do these data come from?

Data are supplied to Ofqual by examination boards near to results day. At the point in time Ofqual receive the data, all certificates and entries may not have been fully processed. Additionally, the data do not reflect changes to grades that may occur after results such as those resulting from reviews of marking and appeals.

For any feedback on these graphs, please contact [email protected].

Return to the Ofqual Analytics home page.

If you need an accessible version of this information to meet specific accessibility requirements, please email [email protected] with details of your request.