Variability in GCSE results for schools and colleges

Interactive Visualisation
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This interactive visualisation shows the year-on-year variation seen in centres (schools or colleges) in England at grade A and above for a particular GCSE subject.

The top-left graph shows year-on-year variability, that is outcomes in the current year relative to the previous one (ie between summer 2024 and summer 2023); all subsequent graphs show outcomes in 2023, 2022, 2021, 2020 and 2019 are each shown in comparison to the previous year (eg between summer 2023 and summer 2022).

For each graph:

Each bar represents the number of centres with a particular level of variation, measured in intervals of 2.5 percentage points. For example, the bar immediately to the right of zero on the x-axis represents centres that had an increase of up to 2.5 percentage points (ie centres where up to 2.5% more students received grade A and above, compared to the previous year).
Bars to the right of zero indicate centres with increases in the percentage of students receiving grade A and above. Bars to the left indicate centres with decreases in the percentage of students receiving grade A and above. The bars further away from zero indicate centres with larger changes in outcomes between years.
The higher the peaks in the middle and the narrower the distributions, the greater the stability from one year to the next (see Q10. How should we interpret the standard deviation [SD]).

Grading is continuing as normal in summer 2024, following the return to pre-pandemic standards in summer 2023. Further information is available in the Ofqual guide for schools and colleges, the Ofqual student guide 2024, and our news story on summer 2024 grading. In 2020 and 2021, when GCSE, AS and A level exams did not go ahead due to the pandemic, national results were higher than prior to the pandemic. Overall results were also higher than pre-pandemic in 2022, when grading was at a midway point between summer 2019 and summer 2021. The return to pre-pandemic grading in summer 2023 meant that national results were similar to pre-pandemic and were lower than in summer 2022. Further information is available on the Ofqual website.

GCSEs in England have been reformed with the process occurring in phases over several years. The reformed GCSEs are graded with a new scale of 9 to 1, with 9 being the highest grade. In the new GCSEs, grades 7 and 4 have been set to align with A and C in the previous specifications. More information on the GCSE reform timetable can be found on the Ofqual website. Grades change over time from letters to a mixture of letters and numbers as a result of these reforms. All grades are now on the 9 to 1 scale.

We have included those subjects at GCSE level which have a large enough entry to support the analysis. These are subjects with an entry of 10,000 or more candidates and with 20 or more centres that have more than 20 students in the subject in question.

We only include centres that have an entry (in both years) of at least 25 students in the subject in question. We do not include centres with smaller entries because just one or two students' grades can make the centre appear to have quite a lot of variability. Also, each graph shows data for centres which have entries above 25 in both years covered in that graph. Centres which had an entry in only one of the two years shown in a graph are not included. The graphs represent all types of centre (eg comprehensive, academy,free school, independent etc).

It is possible to see centre variability according to all students in the centres, regardless of age; or to see centre variability just for students aged 16 at the end of the academic year (ie students in year 11), the target age for GCSEs. This can be done by adjusting the 'Age group' settings in the panel at the top of the page.

In these graphs, it is possible to view data for 'all centres' or 'centres with stable entry numbers'. This can be done by adjusting the 'Entry stability' settings in the panel at the top of the page. Centres with stable entry numbers are those centres which entered very similar numbers of students in the subject in both years shown in a graph. By very similar numbers we mean within +/- 15% of the comparison year. These centres typically show less variation in results. This is probably because large changes in entry in a subject within a centre likely means other things have changed such as the overall profile of students or the nature of provision for the teaching of the subject.

The mean on each graph is the average difference compared between the two comparison years for all of the centres presented in the graph. For example, a mean of -0.6% indicates that, on average, centres had a 0.6% drop in the number of students attaining a grade 4/C and above or 7/A and above at GCSE.

The standard deviation (SD on the graphs) is a measure of the spread of the variation around the mean - a lower SD means there is less variation overall whereas a higher standard deviation means there is more variation. A small SD means that all centres had a similar change from one year to the next.

We include multiple graphs which can help to interpret the SD. In general, where specifications and overall cohorts have not changed, we might expect the SDs to be reasonably similar between graphs, although the impacts of the pandemic may affect the SD between years. Some of the subjects at GCSE are newer and have been assessed over fewer years and so we might expect to see increased variability in these subjects as centres become familiar with the new content and assessments.

Where graphs have a small number of centres presented (ie less than 50), they need to be interpreted with additional caution. Where the combinations selected (of subject, stability, centre size, etc.) produce graphs with a relatively small number of centres, these graphs say little about the overall picture, and more about the individual centres. For this reason, only graphs with more than 20 centres are displayed.

Data is supplied to Ofqual by examination boards near to results day. At the point in time Ofqual receive the data, all certificates and entries may not have been fully processed. Additionally, the data does not reflect changes to grades that may occur after results such as those resulting from reviews of marking and appeals.

For any feedback on these graphs, please contact [email protected].

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